For those of you new to my picks – I like to bet games where I feel that the public’s bias of a team effects the line, ultimately giving us a 1 or 2-point value on every line we bet. Over time it will lead to us winning a lot of money! Similar to compounded interest! So, without further ado, here are my five picks for this weekend in the NBA!
Memphis Grizzlies (-2) @ Minnesota Timberwolves
These games are good for us because the public memory isn’t the best. They remember a 28-point victory for the Grizz in game 2 and forget that the T-wolves won game 1 just three days earlier. If the series was 1-1, and Grizz won by 6 points in Game 2, not 28, I know that Minnesota would be favored. We need to take advantage of the extra points we are getting! Put one unit on Minnesota +2 at home!
Golden State Warrior (-2) @ Denver Nuggets
This is another good spot for us. The Public thinks that Denver is going to “play harder” because if they lose tonight, and go down 3-0, the series will be out of reach. We LOVE to take advantage of that awful take by the public. No shot Denver plays harder tonight then they did in Games 1 or 2. Grab the Warriors at -2 and put 1 unit on it.
Miami Heat (-1.5) @ Atlanta Hawks
The public right now: “What a Game 2 by Jimmy Butler! 45 points, 0 turnovers, and 0 fouls?! Miami is going to sweep this team. Jimmy is just better”.
Smart bettors: Give me 1 unit on the Hawks +1.5 at home.
Philadelphia Sixers (-3) @ Toronto Raptors
The public has two different viewpoints on this game. The first is, Toronto doesn’t want to get swept and will come out of the gates firing in order to stop that from happening. The second is, its very hard for a team to recover from a buzzer beater like the one that happened to the Raptors in Game 3. Truth be told, it doesn’t matter, we need to be on the Raptors at +3. If Embiid doesn’t hit that shot, and raptors went on to win game 3, this line would be a pickem or Raptors would be favored. So we need to take advantage of the free points we are getting and put one unit on the Raptors at +3.
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets (-165)
Call me crazy on this one, but the public has shifted their viewpoint on the Nets too much. They see how well Golden State is doing without Durant, and how well Harden is doing in Philly, and they are starting to think that Durant and Kyrie are overrated. The fact you can bet on two of the best players in the NBA at HOME at only -165 is too good of an opportunity for us to pass on. Bet 3.30 units on the Nets to win on Saturday!
Good luck to everyone, bet within your limits, and have fun!
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